Mr. Fukuyama, telling it like it is

On the pages of WaPo.

A million years worth of links!!!!

Well, a long time's worth anyway. Between finals, weddings, end of an era parties, starting a new job, and suffering from a wonderful combination of exhaustion and general brain meltdown (between Torts II and Property II I'm lucky I have not been institutionalized, and that does not even cover Con Law II...) I have had neither the time, nor the inclination to make any progress on my stored items to read.

Terrorism:
Ah yes, the twisted webs that Lebanese militants weave. A Shia organization signing any kind of pact with a Salafi group? MADNESS! (Btw, the author of the article is very good, have not gotten to any of his books yet though). Although the pact does seem to be more of a temporary truce targeted at bringing more force on a superior enemy, and a sign that the Salafi (Sunni) groups are gaining power in Lebanon.


AQ at 20! Important quote from the article.

Indeed, the jihadists' bloody tactics and attempts to impose rigorous Islamic law in the fiefdoms they temporarily carved out drove local Muslims into the arms of area governments, no matter how brutal, corrupt, and repressive.

As I've argued here before, I agree with the general thesis.

The West Bank of the sub-continent. Extremists on boh sides not afraid to fight with one another. Oh, and did I mention two nuclear weapon states with no love for one another backing each side? Oh, and Pakistan is involved again.

AQ in Pakistan's FATA and NWFP. The Jamestown Foundation has a great history of FATA and NWFP, what all the fuss is about and why. Essentially it pre-dates British rules and was exacerbated by their generally incoherent map line drawing. I will find it archived and post it at some point. While I'm on the subject of Pakistan and terrorism, I read the other day (also in Jameston) that there is not only an insurgency in FATA and NWFP but also in Baluchistan. I know the Iranians are also having a heck of a time with their Baluch minorty too.

Interesting little ditty about insurgency with focus on Afghanistan.

MI5 report on IWahhani-Salafi terrorism in Britain. No real surprises here for me, dovetails with the year or two old NYC study on US Wahhabi-Salafi terror groups.

I dont think AQ is 'morphing' as much as it is devolving into what it was before.

Female Suicide Bombers:
In general the reasons for women becoming suicide bombers are not substnatially differnet then those of men, there are simply more. Evil, wicked, nasty ways that make me sick just thinking about...

Very confusing report on a recent bomber caught before detonating. I was hoping it might yield something more concrete. Just a lot of confusing. Either she did not want to before hand, or changed her mind. My money is on changed her mind, the vest had a button she had to press, well someone had to? No, that strikes me as more of a deliberate decision before hand. A remote detonator would imply no decision. Now she's the centerpiece in a propoganda war.

Light discussion from CNN on the topic.



Iraq:
A good example of how the US Military can only do so much without the help of 'Plan A'. Throw all the money you want at a factory, but if there are not markets to sell to and no fuel to run it, you're going to have a recipe for stagnation.

A detailed account of where the money goes, for what and to whom. It may seem trite to be giving money out for lost limbs and broken in doors, but from what I gather in Iraqi tribal society often that is all that is really required, an apology and restitution. But is that really any different then in American society? Someone negligently hacks off your arm, you take them to court, you get your cash and go home. Fascinating stuff really. I really hope the military is working on collecting all the problems and solutions to avoid the institution forgetting all of this.

I agree with this Op-Ed. Iraq is not in a position yet to start dismantling the Sahwa movements. It has to be done eventually, but not yet and not this way. Removing this pillar would make American troops have to stay in the country longer. And with Maliki wanting 2011 as the end date for combat troops... He may end up being sorely mistaken.

Pakistan:
A good summary of potential worries in Pakistan.

History, and some speculation on the future.

Internets moving away from the US?

Yes. It is a series of tubes after all. And as more countries get more and more tubes, why should they point them elsewhere?

Although I disagree with the so-called 'security' problems that this could cause. Intelligence agencies have the freest hands in intercepting data, phone calls and information when it is not flowing through the US. Especially between two non-US persons. So a connection outside the states can be targeted until the agency realizes a US citizen is on the line. It is only when that connection passes through the US are more safeguards triggered. (If I have the mechanics right, which I may not, if I do not, feel free to correct me).

An interesting wrinkle does come up though. Cyberwar. As we saw, and I posted on, during the great Russo-Georgian 'Tom Clancy' War of 2008 (the conflict was prediceted in a video game) Georgia moved it's goernment websites to Google (US) servers to give them a measure of protection. More so because of the better security that Google offers, but also for a measure of 'now you're messing with the US' interests'. So as more and more tubes become not US 'territory' in cyberspace, and we increasingly 'attack' by hacking into other countries tubes, well if that analogy holds we are entering possibly into real world conflicts. But the web is too amorphous, and I do not know enough to make an accurate assesment of the situation.

While, as the article suggests, we may lose 'home field advantage' on the internets at some point (which means what exactly, that we would have to employ people who speak native languages!!!!!), I think it is perfectly managable.

Your car has gas!

Or rather, your car should have natural gas. It is working well in Utah.

Federalism is great. The States are given a relatively free hand to try any number of ideas that do not directly conflict with the Constitution (in this context I am thinking mainly of both the positive and negative commerce clauses). This allows for a lot of trial and error.

Much like Brazil however, solutions found in some States cannot be replicated in other states. The idea of natural gas powered cars in New England is ludicrous. But in states that large amount of natural gas transit through, or originate in (New England is a end destination for use, especially during the winter), it could be a plausible way to take pressure off of demand in the rest of the US, of course this would play some havoc with other industries that use natural gas.

I have always been a believer in energy substitution, we have the technology to at least make an attempt. Some regions of the country can be powered by renewable, some by nuclear, some by coal and natural gas as needed.

South Africa expanding reprocessing facilities

The expansion and development of the global nuclear Renaissance continues.

I'm actually pretty excited for the PBMR to come on line.

Hopefully these facilities can help to power South Africa economy and bring in some nice profits.

THAT TEARS IT!

Polar bears are cute, Knut proved that. Heck, I like 'em. So white, fluffy, cuddly. I saw some pictures of a polar bear playing with a husky. It was beautiful. And they're being harmed/killed/driven to extinction by global warming.

But Walruses? That's where I draw the line.

Sadr out, Sahwa's next?

Sadr extends JAM truce indefinitely.

Maliki and the ISF have one big threat down, and now they appear to be moving in on the Sahwa movements. Which is VERY risky to say the least.

Throwing some of that 70 billion dollar oil sale account at the economy in those regions where Sahwa's are prevelant and holding provincial elections would be a much better strategy then say, rounding up the leaders and arresting them. But hey, it's not my country... Although I do feel responsible.

Nuclear manufacturing industry expanding in America

New reactor part factory opening in Louisiana.

A good sign for the nuke industry, and for the US. Westinghouse must be expecting the US to be a big market in the future. With transportation costs rising, I bet we'll see more of these plants popping up near suspected boom sites. Nuke plants are already expensive enough without taking on high oceanic shipping costs.

Shoddy infrastructure affecting growth... in America?

I wouldn't be surprised if this story had come out in say, Iraq or South Africa. But America?

It has become apparent over the last year or so, that American needs a massive infrastructure overhaul. If we cannot even plug more power generation into our grid to meet demand, or to displace dirtier supply...

Government subsidies (to renewable and nuclear) will be just a huge waste of money.

At least for the time being the growth stunt is limited to the energy sector, and those facilities that can be quickly built.

UPDATE:
Someone much smarter then I am tackling the question.

Pakistan, harbinger of the apocolypse...

You have GOT to be kidding me!

AQ Khan, the biggest nuclear proliferator EVER, has a shot at winning the Presidency of a nuclear weapon state?

Pakistan's economy is not in that great of shape, so I could see it going the North Korea route and selling sensitive technologies to stay afloat. Even if they are signatories to the NPT.

Webs within webs

I was preparing a post giving it to the Swiss. Turns out they were actually doing something useful.

Granted, I think the files would've been better preserved, and still strikes me as a very self-centered move on the part of the Swiss.

Things fall apart, Pakistan edition

Musharraf is gone. And the civillian government falls apart.

Not surprising though.

Well aside from that whole increasingly violent extremist struggle that is slowly spreading to other countries including a superpower and a soon-to-be super power. That old story.

More on what, why and how.

Russia wants to keep it's cake, and eat it too!

Sure, lets postpone that Russian-US Nuke deal until AFTER Congress forgets all the bad stuff Russia has done!

If there is one thing Congress can do, it's send signals by not doing anything. Hopefully they keep up the trend.

Holy Moley...

100 or more dead? Attacking an arms factory?

Maybe Pakistan's government will get focused, now that Musharaff is gone. Something tells me there will be more infighting and a lot more people will die.

Are the Taliban simply attacking the arms factory as a signal to the people to stop building weapons for the military? Or are they attacking to create a diversion so they can break in and steal what arms they need?

More from The Long War Journal.

Food irradiation

The FDA has just approved irradiation of 'greens'.

I wonder if this is in any way related to the recent unknown E. Coli outbreaks. Although I do not think so, FDA approval takes a while. It may have been fast tracked though.

But while it may be approved for greens, it has been approved for meat for a while. However, if I remember correctly those who do not think irradiation is a good idea have fought for legislation requiring companies to label products as irradiated, and that can be a killer in the market. People are, how can I say this, not as informed as they should be, and irradiation can scare them away from products. However, I dont have an exact number on the percentage of meat products that are actually irradiated.

But I imagine it will be something similar with greens.

Draft Iraq Pull Out Agreement?

Set for June 30th, but more of a goal then anything else.

With the election law not being passed, and severe problems beginning to affect to Sahwa movements... I am still a little unsure.

But June is a ways away.

With the UN stepping up to try and solve the Kirkuk question, which will hopefully help the election law pass, some pressure may be relieved. If the UN can accomplish a settlement. With new elections, there may be better movement on the Sahwa movement front.

Too many conditionals for my tastes. But if this agreement becomes more then a draft (does the Iraqi parliament have to sign off on it?) before the new Parliamentary session, then that will be something to track closely.

UPDATE:
Looks like the Parliament has to approve it. More (better) analysis from Dr. iRak.

4th Amendment and readily avaliable information

With all this fancy smancy technology, it is becoming easier and easier to aggregate a lot of information and to draw conclusions from that information. Which is good.

But what if you're a criminal, and 'The Man' starts collecting information, that is readily observable and available on the public record to tie you to crimes? Such as GPS information? As the article points out, using a GPS is closer to a police officer tailing a suspect (with out the time, expense and human error) then a wire-tap.

A lot of Tort law for privacy issues is based partly on whether or not the plaintiff had an expectation of privacy about certain information or situations. The 4th Amendment operates, at least as far as I know/remember, in similar means. And 'seizure' has been expanded to include the shooting, and killing of a fleeing suspect. So it could easily include, if the Supreme Court said so, so called 'data mining'.

But more importantly, there is a lot of data out there about people. Think of your Facebook or LinkedIn page (if it's not locked). Even then, at least for Facebook, as long as someone knows one of the networks you are in,they can actually find something on your profile by doing a simple search. Heck, do a google search of your own name. A lot of stuff comes up! Then go to a cellphone number finding service, you can find a whole bunch of information about yourself just from the cellphone number. And there are ways to get around unlisted or blocked numbers. I know for a fact that the police use services like ChoicePoint, a service that collects all public records associated with a person and makes it avalaible when you search for any one of the elements associated with that person. From a liscense plate number you can get home addresses, loan information, known associates, aliases. It's quite amazing actually.

On to the real point, does anyone really have any idea what information is out there about them? How can they have an expectation of privacy about anything? I know it's more of an amorphous 'reasonable person' type test, but if it's out on the public record, does that not make any reasonable expectation unreasonable?

I do not have the biggest interest in privacy issues, but is still interesting to see how technology changes the conversation, and how the law reacts.

Giant, flying laser cannons

I am serious. Giant. Flying. Laser Cannons.

Oh yeah.

More on abilities, and possibilities from Danger Room.

What's next? Sharks with friggin' laser beams attached to their heads? (Actually, they might be useful in protecting docked ships from terrorists in the water. I bet DARPA is working on it already.)

I wonder how this compares to the Naval rail gun in power usage. Although since it's a chemical laser, power usage may be the wrong metric of comparison. Because if you are using more energy then the rail run to make a laser, why not use that energy to accelerate the slug fired by the rail gun faster? Kinetic weapons usually have a higher energy input to kill ratio anyway. Although the laser's main selling point is bouncing, targeting and above all accuracy. The rail gun is more of a dumb fire weapon, shoot it and hope for the best.

Anyone who would ask that, is not your friend.

Still, I would side with Georgia anyway.

Russia should have paid attention. The world did not react when they pushed into Ossetia and Abkhazia. That was apparently okay. And really, what can the US say about it without looking like a huge hypocrite? But moving into Georgia proper, that should provoke a tough response. Bush started out not caring, playing volleyball, and now he's committing American personell to the combat zone.

Besides, bowing to Russian demands now would only embolden them in the future. If Georgia is okay, it makes it much harder to draw the line later. Yeah yeah yeah, I know, typical realist bull-honkey right?

Interesting though, the different political tactics engaged in by the US and Russia in their interventionist adventures. At least the US tried to get support for an invasion of Iraq. Russia did not even bother. And there are no protests, or international outcry. Just a wimper. I guess it's expected of Russia to be beligerent, and the US is held to a higher standard? At least Russia does not have to worry about losing that precious 'moral' 'high ground' that is so vital to leading...

It's the Crimean War all over!

Limited ability of Europe to control the 'imperial' military ambitions of Russia.

Also a war involving identity as a driver (Crimea it was religion, Ossetia it was ethnicity).

Maybe I do need to take law of cyberspace...

Estonia and Google are helping Georgia avoid Russia cyber-attacks.

So what exactly does that mean? If the Russians start attacking Google, are they attacking the US? (is this related?! If so, those Russians are really bastards.)

If they are, the US can host allied internet as another layer of protection. But would we want to do that?

I know for a fact that Iranian web servers are located in Germany (some at least). So any cyber-assault on Iran would be an attack on Germany?

This is not a good sign...

Russia moving into Georgia proper.

That's some firepower!

Steaming towards the Persian Gulf.

Iran better take notice. And think long and hard.

Can an entire country be the anti-Christ?

If so, then Pakistan is it.

Can you think of another country at the center of so many potentially horrible conflicts?

Supporting terrorism in Afghanistan. Engaging in proxy wars with India in Kashmir (and Indian proper and in Afghanistan), actual military engagements with India (did I mention both states have nukes?). And now supporting terrorism in China?

Just off the top of my head, I would never have said there was a connection, But I sometimes forget that the Uighurs in Xinjiang province are Muslim. There are terrorists training right across the border in Pakistan who also happen to be Muslim. And China is an infidel state. It should not come as a surprise that there are developing operation links. The biggest question may be, why has it taken so long to develop?

Maybe once Pakistan finally clears out the existential threat to it's existance, that newly minted-civillian dictaor Musharraf (seriously, what is it with the politics there, first Msharaff beat up a bunch of lawyers and now the legislatute is beating up Musharraf) they'll actually tackle the threat that is rotting their own state and destroying parts of Iraq, Afghanistan, Europe and China.

Same old song and dance

Good to see Russia has not abandonded their tried and true tactics. Where they blow everyone and everything to hell and let God sort 'em out (Afghanistan, and Chechnya). Stop, then put in a strongman to tamp down crime and increase development (Chechnya).

The strategy worked fairly well in Chechnya, but the circumstances were different. That was in the context of Russia as an 'occupying' force. Where as in Ossetia the Russians are 'peacekeepers' and protectors. In Ossetia the Russians have something to lose, while in Chechnya they did not.

But how will the play out in the actual control of Ossetia (because, at the very least, that is where I see this headed)? Will the people be upset the Russians blew everything to hell? Will they blame the Georgians? Will they even care, or just be happy to be not part of Georgia anymore?

UPDATE:
And now the after party. A strongman selected by Russia, and boat loads of Russian cash.

The Water Cube

Not only does it look awesome. (And is apparently 'green'.)

But it's designed for fast times!

Any swimmer will tell you that pools all have distinctive feels. From the way the shallow end meets the deep end, to currents from the water circulation system and the temperature of the water, to even those odd pools where the walls suddenly disappear from the sides of lanes. Some pools suck the momentum right out of you, while others seem to add it.

Each one has it's own personality. Such a delicate balance of variables.

As a big guy, I always liked the deeper pools with overflow gutters (whether onto the deck or still in the pool). They created less waves, trust me, I know a little something about wave production.

Female Suicide Bombers

I am deeply fascinated by Terrorism as a social and political phenomenon.

And even more so, I'm interested in suicide bombings. Such a complex interweave of social forces. And operational considerations.

Still, female suicide bombings kind of perplex me. And it's not so much of the 'sexist' idea that women should be life givers, not takers. But more for the social ramifications, is it a sign on burgeoning 'feminism' in these movements? I recall a CNN story a few months ago (can't find it for the life of me) about how female wahhabi-salafis were demanding an 'equal opportunity' to die on the battlefield. Talk about a brain f@#&.

Women demanding equal opportunity, to do anything, from the spewers of the some of the most sexually repressive ideology I can think of? Next they'll be demanding to walk around by themselves, not to wear a hijab or burqa, to vote and drive! Madness!

I am currently reading a set of article on the phenomenon, and I'll come back and post some more observations about the subject once I am finished. However, from what I've read so far (the word 'non-normative has been thrown around a lot) I second the tone of this article from Jezebel.

The new mujahideen, same as the old mujahideen

No more Iraq, it's back to Afghanistan.

The legacy of the 1979. Quick, efficient egress, expansive internal networks in Pakistan. And wonderful connections between the intelligence service of Pakistan, the Taliban (and I'm guessing Al Qaeda).

Quaint.

I guess on the plus side, more problems mean more potential solutions right!

General Iraq news

Most of it's old, but it is Finals. What do you want from me!

NYT's on JAM's new found weakness. Sadr trying to propmt a US withdrawal with full disarmament. More on the same from TIME. (I guess the whole kill the American's bit did not go over to well with the rest of his suppoters once he broke up JAM into two wings).

No luck on that Provincial elections law. So no top level progress, and increases the likelihood of a return to widespread violence. Which really sucks, because the political realm may be becoming more legitimate.

Oil production increasing. But ability to spend money is not.

As long as the Iraqi Army is willing, then will eventually be ready. Nothing like combat to sharpen your skills. Plenty of operations to shake loose upper echelon military leaders.

Will there be outrage?

If history is an guide, the international commnunity will be as impotent as it has been in the past.

Oh, Russia and Georgia appear to be at war. And not just in Ossetia.

UPDATE:
Right on Monkey Cage. This will be the first real step in shaping how the rest of the world deals with Russia in the future. Sure they can bully Estonia, push Belarus around, cut off natural gas to Ukraine, and even influence NATO expansion. But to openly invade another country? (Even if it is to protect ethnic-Russians, the Georgians did apparently start the conflict.) And one firmly allied with the West? Here is where it starts.

On a secondary track. With the recent succession of Kosovo, will we see more ethnically fractured state collapse, or separate? We see a more peaceful disintegration of a state in Belgium, but with the EU the Flemish and Walloons really do not need a state to embody their interests anymore. More interestingly, Kosovo (and depending on where Osetia heads) could set a precedent for military interventions leading to state disintegration. Look at Darfur, is there any real way that the people of Darfur could be reintegrated into a Sundanese state were there to be outside military intervention? Part of the reason Rawanda is an undivided country is because there was no outside intervention. More on the history and potential international law ramification at Opinio Juris.

South Africa's PBMR

First one online in 2010?

It's exciting new technology. It will be interesting to watch how South Africa's economy reacts.

Wrong balancer?

Why is the EPA in charge of balancing oil demand and argricultural impacts?

I'm assuming the EPA is informed by both Department of Energy and Department of Agriculture, but still.

Emissions are related to what the EPA is doing... but it just seems odd to have the agency are the arbiter.

Network analysis

Ah yes, data revealing the real structure and power of networks.

I find both network analysis (and conversely network destruction) and the analysis enabled by data collection fascinating.

Oil from the Gulf

Overall, we are not tapped out yet.

And I did not know the Gulf was running at under capacity since Katrina.

Demand is slipping, and supply is coming back. Maybe no peak oil for a while?

ROBOTS! (Said like Al Gore from Bender's Big Score)

Are Skyney and Terminators destined to slot into our societies as merely another race? As long as the robot reacts to human emotion, a bond will be formed.

I guess it would only really become an issue if Robots gained human level intelligence (or more) and we do not effectively Asimov them (The three rules of robotics: A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. A robot must obey orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.) Anything less, they would likely not care an emotional bond was formed. But I suppose it would all depend on how they are programmed and conditioned to react.

Still, an interesting field of study.