Saturday, December 6, 2008

Was Mumbai just a precursor to an assault on the Pakistani state?

Ever since the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, India has largely been the le grand bete noir in Pakistan. Indian intervention into the Pakistan-Bangladesh split, the ongoing Vale of Kashmir (which reached a fever pitch and almost all out war in late 2000) have not helped matters one bit. Their 'great game' runs into Afghanistan where recent attacks against Indian interests in the country have been linked to Paksitani groups also.

Needless to say, the recent disclosures that the Mumbai attacks have been traced to groups in Pakistan have drastically increased tensions between the two states. Even worse, the Pakistani ISI has links to the Lashkar-e Taiba (a militant groups focued on 'liberating' Kashmir) in much the same way the ISI has links to the Taliban and Al Qaeda currently rampaging through the FATA and NWFP. The focus of domestic Indian ire is directed right at Pakistan, and not so much at the groups responsible. India has been playing right along.

With the US conducting missile attacks on Pakistani border, and India ramping up the pressure. The Pakistani state is being discredited, or attempting to be, with the population.

One of the central tenants of an Insurgency is to delegitimize the state that is being fought against. Generally this occurs through attacks on the civillian population to reduce security. However, it looks like Pakistani militants are adopting differnet tactics. Using foreign states to push the state to the brink. Where they can swoop in can pick up the pieces.

Of course, this is assuming some kind of coordination between the Taliban elements and the LeT. Which, attacks like this, signal to me that largely there are none. Now's not the time to be blowing up the population that you need to support your movement. However, the LeT may just be capitalizing on a large amount of instability to try and work their agenda.

Or I could just be reading too much into the situation, and it would just be another in a long line of devastating terrorist attacks that are largely devoid of any stragetic purpose or vision.

UPDATE:
A fantastic piece from The Long War Journal about the terror groups in Pakistan.

UPDATE:
Pakistan may be coming around. They are taking steps to 'remedy' the problem. Or at least de-escalate. I've had high hopes for the new civilian government in Pakistan, maybe they'll come through.