Hizbollah was defeated?

Asharq al-awsat thinks so. Although it appears to be more of a theoretical loss. Which, sure, makes sense on some level. But that still does not change the fact that Hizbollah is basically in the drivers seat. There may have been sectarian warfare initiated by Hizbollah, but what can the other factions do about it? Hizbollah had their way with the rest of Lebanon.

What they are doing is rolling back the changes they initiated that provoked Hizbollah. Granted Hizbollah has said it will not leave the field. But this is no way related the the 'lack of legitimacy' or 'sectarian violence' that Hizbollah unleashed. Hizbollah has proven they are the top dog in the system. And now, with the withdrawal of anti-Hizbollah measures, that is going to be recognized in all future proceedings.

Do you actually think whatever concrete decisions or new political order comes out of the mediation and government talks will not reflect Hizbollah's new position?

Hizbollah's got the guns, internal political support and external beneficiaries. They showed that in the rounds of fighting. Unfortunately I do not think Hizbollah will be good for Lebanon. But the reality on the ground has to be reflected in the political establishment that is created. Lebanon is unstable because the old consociational is broken. The system needs to reflect who has the power. When small groups are put in charge of states where they have to cling to the state apparatus for power, bad things happen.

When a strong political group is in control that has independent support there is no guarantee of no violence, look at Iraq with the Shia back in control the Sunni did not like it and created the insurgency, but at least the real power (and often the actual population distribution) having more control it will be more about people becoming 'used' the the new government system rather then having the majority of the population ready to rebel whenever something does not go their way.

Having the largest group in power should also make them more willing to compromise. Since they have nominal leadership, or even partial majority control, over what the state does, so they can assure their interests are maintained. And assuming the interests of the group in power are, on some level, reconcilable with the other groups in the system there should be room to operate.

One positive development has been the Hizbollah has not simply taken over the country. It looks like they, at least for the time being, are willing to try and work within the system. Look at it this way, would a government that was dominated by Hizbollah ever have passed the legislation that caused Hizbollah to resort to violence? No. Now, that does not mean the government wouldn't have angered other groups. But if they are not a major power in the country, they really have no recourse.

UPDATE:
Hizbollah emerging ahead. Hizbollah igniting an Iraq style sectarian war.

UPDATE:
What did I tell you.
Good commentary on the deal here.